Tag: Ukraine

Ukraine War – Year One

On February 24, 2022, after weeks of media hype and repeated warnings from numerous western intelligence services, the Russian Federation launched what was supposed to be a 72-hour anschluss that would bring Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence. Confident in imminent victory, Russian soldiers brought along dress uniforms. Many who participated in the initial invasion were told they would soon parade in Kyiv and receive military decorations. As it has turned out, the affair was not the walk in the park anticipated by Putin and his planners. They grossly underestimated Ukrainian willingness to fight tooth and nail for every meter of territory, as well as NATO resolve to ensure a Ukrainian victory. This, combined with inept Russian leadership, antiquated tactics, and poorly prepared troops, quickly turned the conflict into the bloodiest conventional war of the 21st Century.… Read More Ukraine War – Year One

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The Crimean Bridge Will Cease to Exist: Interview with the Head Ukrainian Military Intelligence

Recently Ukrainskaya Pravda’s Roman Kravets sat down with Kiril Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense. Since the beginning of the war, Budanov has become one of the most authoritative Ukrainian sources on the conflict. He accurately predicted that Russia would initiate hostilities with Ukraine a year before the invasion. In late May of this year the young intelligence expert predicted that by August Ukrainian forces would be able to launch an offensive that would reclaim most lost territory by the end of the year. The subsequent summer offensives and ongoing push in the south toward Kherson and in the Donbas are the fruit of those predictions… Read More The Crimean Bridge Will Cease to Exist: Interview with the Head Ukrainian Military Intelligence

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Ukraine War: Russian Comms Update (Day 118)

Ukraine State Security Service continues to intercept Russian communications and post excerpts on its YouTube channel. If the intercepts are accurate, the situation for Russian federation forces on the front line is anything but ideal. Among other things, Putin’s troops complain of poor rations, living under constant artillery bombardment, and refusal to follow orders. The audio also confirms that Russians continue to commit war crimes in eastern occupied territories. Following are excerpts of Russian comms from the last… Read More Ukraine War: Russian Comms Update (Day 118)

Keith Smith

Ukraine War: Interview with Ukrainian Head of Military Intelligence – Kirill Budanov

Ukrainskaya Pravda reporter Roman Kravets recently interviewed Kirill Budanov, Head of the Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense Intelligence Directorate. Appointed in 2020, Budanov has risen to become one of the most influential and authoritative sources of information about the war, cited in many international news articles. He was one of only a few Ukrainian government officials who publicly warned of imminent large-scale war with Russia starting last year, including the directions from which Russia could attack. He has been proven correct in his predictions thus far. In this rare intimate interview Budanov speaks about Vladimir Putin’s health, possible coup attempts in Russia, why the Ukrainian government did not better prepare the country for war, and his predictions for how the war will end among other topics. The following are English translation excerpts of the interview.… Read More Ukraine War: Interview with Ukrainian Head of Military Intelligence – Kirill Budanov

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Ukraine War: Russian Comms Update

Ukrainian State Security continues to intercept and publish audio of intercepted communications between Russian servicemen in Ukraine and family members in Russia. The nature of the topics discussed in these calls varies from talk about the commission of potential war crimes to insubordination and mutiny. Intercepts posted portray the occupying Russians in a negative light; however, this is to be expected given the source and the… Read More Ukraine War: Russian Comms Update

Keith Smith

Unsung Heroes: Ukrainian Fishermen Save Thousands Behind Enemy Lines

Ukrainian Pravda recently reported that a handful of fishermen saved 2,000 of their countrymen trapped behind Russian lines. The ad hoc operation began in early March 2021 after the Ukrainian government organized evacuation and humanitarian assistance efforts in unoccupied areas near the Kyiv reservoir and local fishermen decided to pitch in with their motorboats. The 356 square mile reservoir (922 square kilometers), known locally as the Kyiv Sea, stretches for nearly seventy miles along the Dnieper River. Several small fishing villages dot its marshy banks and inlets. One of these, Strakholissya, became the homebase of the operation.… Read More Unsung Heroes: Ukrainian Fishermen Save Thousands Behind Enemy Lines

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Ukraine State Security Service: Disgruntled Russian Troops Ready to Rebel Against Commanders, Ukrainians Inflict 70% Casualties on Russian Units at Mykolaiv

Russian forces operating in Ukraine have been plagued with logistical problems since the onset of hostilities. Inability to effectively evacuate casualties, resupply, and refuel frontline combat units were certainly a major factor in the Russian decision to withdrawal from northern Ukraine and Kyiv. In part, it also explains why the Russians shifted their main effort to eastern Ukraine. This move, which seeks to secure the breakaway provinces in Donbas, significantly shortened supply routes which now run largely through more secure areas that have been under Russian control for some time now. Regardless, it appears that supply problems continue to… Read More Ukraine State Security Service: Disgruntled Russian Troops Ready to Rebel Against Commanders, Ukrainians Inflict 70% Casualties on Russian Units at Mykolaiv

Keith Smith

Air Power: 21st Century Evolution – Russia Left Behind

As an Air Force veteran this post topic is especially interesting. I will start by committing what some of my airmen colleagues might consider heresy – conventional strategic air power has never won a war on its own and is not likely to do so in the future. I recall discussing the subject with my late grandfather, who served a total of 20 years as a USAAF pilot during WWII and in the USAF Reserve. He was schooled in the doctrines of Billy Mitchell and firmly believed that Strategic Air Power could bring just about any enemy to its knees. I recall him telling me in 2003 that we should have leveled every city in Iraq including all major infrastructure before a single U.S. soldier set foot in the country. He also pointed to the fact that it was the Operation Linebacker I and II bombing campaigns during Vietnam that brought the communists to the negotiating table. A look at history, however, is enough to dispel the myth of a quick and decisive victory won by air power.… Read More Air Power: 21st Century Evolution – Russia Left Behind

Keith Smith

Intercepted Russian Ground Force Comms Confirm Troops Ordered to Shoot Civilians

Today Der Spiegel reported that the German Foreign Intelligence Service intercepted and recorded communications of Russian military units on the ground in the area north of Kyiv. It is possible that some of these comms may be linked with the horrifying images that have emerged from Bucha and other areas where civilians were shot, many with their hands bound behind their back. The Ukrainian State Security Service also posted two intercepted audio cuts of Russian soldiers giving and receiving orders to fire at civilians as well as soldiers discussing the killing of civilians. These were intercepted in other parts of Ukraine and posted to the service’s YouTube channel on March 30th and April 6th.… Read More Intercepted Russian Ground Force Comms Confirm Troops Ordered to Shoot Civilians

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Guerrilla Warfare – Weak vs. Strong: Why do some insurgencies succeed while others fail?

The differences between conventional and unconventional warfare are numerous, however the most obvious is the fact that irregular/unconventional/guerrilla warfare pits a strategically more powerful conventional army against a weaker enemy force – weaker in personnel, materiel, technology, weaponry, etc. Historically, conventional armies have attempted to use their tried and true conventional warfighting methods such as the use of  massive firepower and operational maneuver, while a guerrilla force will avoid fighting in the open (because they know it will lead to its annihilation) and only engage in situations carefully selected to give them a tactical advantage.… Read More Guerrilla Warfare – Weak vs. Strong: Why do some insurgencies succeed while others fail?

Keith Smith